Lightning EV Scenario

Enter one route's values to compare scenarios; the calculation runs only in this browser.

Interactive scenario tool

Compare harvest-now value with a player-defined hold scenario. The result is an estimate, never a guaranteed payout.

Source: Official Greedy Growers Roblox description
Confidence: High confidence in the arithmetic. Game probabilities and loss behavior are unknown, so every scenario parameter is supplied by the player.
Tool version: 1.0.0

Scenario only. Expected value is a weighted average across your assumptions. It is not a promise that one harvest will pay this amount.

Current observed crop valueCash value you can harvest now, before the mutation multiplier below.Value multiplier if you keep growingYour own target divided by current value. Enter 1 for no growth.Applied mutation multiplierUse 1 if none. Recheck the live build before entering a reported value.Strike probability before targetPlayer estimate from 0 to 1. The developer has not published a default.Value lost if struckPlayer estimate from 0 to 1. Use 1 only if your observed outcome loses all value.Protected fraction of the lossPlayer-observed protection from 0 to 1. Enter 0 when no protection is observed.

Enter all six player-observed values to calculate a scenario.

Formula and units

All values are in the cash unit shown by your current game session. The module uses:

Harvest now = current crop value × mutation multiplier

Hold if no strike = harvest now × hold growth multiplier

Retained fraction after strike = 1 - loss fraction × (1 - protection fraction)

Expected hold value = (1 - strike probability) × hold if no strike + strike probability × hold if struck

The final comparison subtracts harvest-now value from expected hold value. A positive result favors holding only under the assumptions you entered. It does not predict the next strike.

Read this without JavaScript

The complete formula is printed above and remains visible when JavaScript is disabled. Multiply the two scenario branches by their probabilities, then add them. Use a strike probability of 0 to model no strike and 1 to model a certain strike. Keep probabilities, loss, and protection between 0 and 1.

Evidence boundary

The official Roblox description confirms that lightning can strike and tells players to harvest first. It does not publish strike probability, protection behavior, loss percentage, a growth curve, or a guaranteed mutation outcome. This tool therefore has no hidden game constants and no suggested default values.

Continue with the lightning and harvest timing guide or compare a purchase in the Seed Affordability Planner.